The earth will not change because of human

Our Premier Wen Jiabao cares for Chinese. Every one knows. Recently he met with specialists and urged for quake prediction technique against similar disaster in the future.

Certainly we all hope that one day we can have this type of technology.

However, not only such technique has not been developed and even Japan that faces the most frequent threat of earthquake is still far from predicting exactly where and when will happen and how big.

Just the other day, the CCTV-1 had invited a Chinese specialist and asked her about the natural signals like ants and birds etc. She said all such signals were recorded and studied. She was asked why not gave notice to people. She said that there was no sure date and could not say which area. By announcing this forecast, it would only create panic and chaos.

That is what I have said on May 18, the more advanced we are, the more difficult we can react, something like exceptionally over-weighted.

Just think about going to do such forecast.

When it is announced, it would like "There will be an earthquake in Sichuan from a few days to a few months from now. Everyone should prepare and avoid staying at home or any building."
People in Sichuan would ask which location and how big the earthquake.

Then scientists may have to say "It may be between 6.0 to 8.0. It may be the northern or central part of Sichuan."

Then local officers will ask for whether people in all these areas have to move out. If so, what date should we move?

Now, there is a difficult time for specialists or the government. Can you say to-morrow? Can you say three days after? If earthquake does not happen for a month, who will pay for the loss.

Nowadays, it costs so much a day in term of production. The cost of evacuation and the cost of feeding thousands if not millions for a month will be hard to face.

It may also happen that after a month, when fund is over or people have lost their patience and demand a return.

Can anyone guarantee the return will be safe?

All these problems cannot be solved by anyone.

Can we build all houses that can stay firm with the highest level of earthquake? Just check California. According the TV program of National Geographic, only the Town Hall has the base rebuilt against earthquake. In the program, the question of why not all the other buildings is money. The cost for the Town Hall project cost over two hundred millions. The simple fact is no country in the world can afford to build all houses with such standard. Even if such houses were built, the price would be too high for anyone except the billionaires.

About my saying about development, just refer to the tsunami of Indonesia in 2004. A village with about a thousand people had escaped unhurt. They have knowledge inherited from ancestors so that when the elder chief watched the color of the ocean, he immediately ordered the whole village to move up the mountain. Their livelihood is fishing; no building except simple huts that can be built again easily. All their precious belonging is their lives only. If we are like them, then it is easy to run for our lives even against false alarm.

The most annoying thing is to criticize others when you have no knowledge at all. Knowledge is free for all to achieve.

Come now! Do not put back your developed human body back to animal entities.

總理溫家寶極之關懷國民。所有人都知道。他最近與專家們開會要求建立地震預警能力以防將來出現的地震。

當然我們都希望有一日人類可以有這樣的技術。

不過不單止這種技術未有發展出來，即使是面臨地震威脅最大的日本仍不能達到準確指出何時何地會發生及是那一級地震。

數日前，中央電視一台就請來了一位專家及問她關於大自然生物例如螞蟻及雀鳥等對地震反應的事。她回答這些資料都有留意及研究。主持人再問為什麼不預告這些事，她說這些資料不能說明何時何地會發生。提出來只會帶來恐慌及混亂。

這正是我在5月18日所說我們越發展就越難對這些事作出反應，有如極度肥胖不易移動。
只須假設我們會公佈這種警告。

當公佈時，可能會是這樣說將會在未來數天至數月間四川地區將會有地震。所有人都應該作出預備及避免在戶內包括住宅及任合建築物。

四川人民會問究竟會在那個地區及地震是多少級。

當地的官員將會問這些區的人民應否轉移？如果是的話，那個日子需要進行呢？

當時任何專家或政府都面對困難了。你可以說明天嗎？你可以說三天後嗎？如果一個月後仍未有地震，誰能賠償這事的經濟損失。在現今每天的生產價值極高。轉移及數千至百萬人的生活費用是不易應付的。

在一個月後可能經費已耗盡，也可能人民失去耐性要求回家。

有人可以擔保回家是安全嗎？

這些問題是沒有人可以解決。

我們可否建設能夠面對預計最大地震的房屋嗎？在我提過美國國家地理製作有關加州地震的電視節目中提出加州的市政大廈因此而重建可面對地震的地基。在節目中也說為什麼不為所有建築物進行相同的改建的原因是錢。市政大廈的重建項目花了兩億美元。世界上所有政府都沒有能力把國家的所有房屋建成這樣的水準。即使有這種房屋建成，價格只有億萬富翁才可購買。

至於我所稱的發展問題，只需看看在2004年印尼發生的海嘯。有一條約有一千人的村落竟然沒有傷亡。他們是有祖先們傳承的認識，當年長的領導看到海水的顏色有變時立即命令全村跑上山。他們是以捕魚為生，住的是極容易重建的簡陋房屋，他們最重要的財產只是他們的生命。如果我們像他們一樣，逃生是極容易，即使是虛假的警示。

最令人不滿的是沒有知識來批評。知識是免費的更是任何人都可以獲得。來吧！切勿把你的腦袋白費，把已進化的高等生物變回無知的動物。