It is always easy to comment when you are not the administrator. Just like fortune tellers, with if one among thousands of forecasts really happened, then this will be the selling point forever.
If thing is simple, just like a race in Hong Kong, there are maximum of fourteen horses for one race. Can all of us get the winner? If so, we can be the richest man in the world. If you have many friends, you can offer tips for each one with a different horse. Fourteen friends will be enough. Then you can have free dinner every time because one of them will win.
When it comes to nature, can any specialist tell exactly when and where the earthquake will occur? Don't tell me it would be a province or a couple of year. It is not possible.
Of course, the warning will be like "There will be an earthquake possibly Richter Scale around 7 and may happen within a couple of years." So what can administrators do? Let's assume that such warning is really accepted. First, a plan must be arranged and then the fund will be raised before any operation.
The area has millions of people, many thousands of building. It is a simple fact that it is impossible to rebuild all of them simultaneously. So the administrators will ask the experts where would be more urgent. Can the specialists pin-pointed where? Now, after the quake, even an idiot can say where.
How about evacuation? Again, it is impossible to migrate millions of people together. Even if we can find somewhere suitable for them, so where we have to start first? Can specialists say?
I am not against scientists. To offer their warning is their duty. To say why not enact in time is their ignorance.
Do you think people in that area will listen to this assumption? If Chinese authority forces people to evacuate, that will be taken as kind of conspiracy by the whole world.
Furthermore, to evacuate such number of people is not a simple thing. They need home, they need work, they need education, they need medication etc. Can we build a city in a few years?
Another point about money, can we ask for contribution because there will be earthquake forecasted by specialist?
See "Experts Warned of Quake Risk in China" and you know what I am talking about.
No one would prefer to live on top of a fault. Their ancestors did not know. OK, Chinese is lack of scientific knowledge. How about America? San Francisco and many cities are built on top of various faults. I have pointed this out here in May 18 and asked readers to see "The Next Big One—Earthquake Technology".
The most annoying thing is not the earthquake, but those ignorant people telling nonsense.
當自已不是負責人時通常都是很容易批評。正如占卜的人，只須在無數預言中有一個命中就可以大做文章來宣傳。
簡單的事例如香港的賽馬，一場賽事最多只有十四匹馬。我們可以預知那一匹勝出呢？如果可以的話，我們就可以是世界首富了。如果我們有很多朋友，我們可以對每一個朋友提供不同馬匹的貼士。只要有十四個朋友，我們就必定有人請食飯因為一定有一個人買中。
如果是大自然事件，有沒有專家可以指出那個位置那個日子有地震呢？切勿告訴我是一個省或是在數年間。這是沒有可能處理的。
當然，警告的是“四川省汶川等地區在這兩三年間將會有可能達到7級地震”。領導人會怎樣做呢？讓我們假設接受了這個警告。在任何行動前，首先是安排一個計劃，然後開始籌款。
那地區有數百萬人，數十萬間房屋。絕不可能一併重建所有建築物。領導們將會問專家那個位置最危險。專家可以指出是那個位置嗎？在今日地震出現後，白痴都可以說是那裡。
可以採用撤離嗎？要撤離數百萬人幾乎是沒可能的事。即使可以找到容納他們的地方，也會需要知道從那處開始。專家可以確定嗎？
我絕對不是抗拒科學家。提出警告是他們的責任。說為什麼不採取行動是他們的無知。
而且要轉移這樣多的人絕不簡單。他們需要家庭，他們需要工作，他們需要教育，他們需要醫療等等。我們可以在數年間建立這樣的城市嗎？
那地區的人們會聽從這個警告嗎？如果中國政府強迫他們撤離，全世界都會指責這是個陰謀。
至於金錢方面，我們可以說專家警告有地震來募捐嗎？
請看Experts Warned of Quake Risk in China就可以明白我說什麼。
沒有人會選擇居住在斷層之上。他們的祖先沒有這樣的認識。那好！中國人在科學方面是落後。美國又如何呢？三藩市及不少其他城市都是建立在各斷層之上。我在5月18日已在這裡指出及提議讀者去看"The Next Big One—Earthquake Technology"。
最令人氣憤的不是地震，而是那些無知的人說三道四。
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